High housing costs in London leads to decline in birth rate

Housing

High housing costs in London take toll on numbers of babies born in high cost boroughs

The higher the housing costs the greater the decline in the numbers of babies born since 2010 says GMB London 

A new study by GMB London Region has found a correlation between housing costs in London, and the number of births in the capital since 2010. The study has found that those living in boroughs with high housing costs are having less children than those where housing is more affordable.

In January 2018, the average house price in Kensington and Chelsea was £1,463,378. In the eight years since 2010, the number of a births per year in the borough decreased by 26.29%, from 2,221 to 1,637.

Other areas where this is occurring include Richmond Upon Thames which had an average house price of £639,200 in January 2018 and has seen a 22.79% decrease in the number of births since 2010; Lambeth where the average house price was £514,176, has seen a decrease of 20.53% in the birth rate; Westminster were the average house price was £1,116,111, has seen a decrease in birth rate of 17.95%; and Camden were the average house price was £859,593, saw birth rates decrease over eight years also by 17.95%.

Meanwhile, boroughs with lower average house prices have shown a smaller decrease in birth rates, and in some cases have seen an increase. In Havering for example, the average housing price in 2018 was £365,934, while in the eight years from 2010, birth rates went up by 17.39% from 2,817 in 2010 to 3,307 in 2018. Other areas that saw an increased birth rate include Bexley, where houses prices averaged £340,598 whilst the birth rate increased by 1.27%. In Barking and Dagenham, which has the lowest average house price in January 2018, £292,915, the birth rate decreased by just 0.78%.

The figures covering 32 boroughs in London are set out in the table below, ranked by the largest decrease in birth rate between 2010 and 2018. This is from a new study by GMB London Region of official data for 32 boroughs in London. It compares the average house price from January 2018 by London boroughs, and shows the number of births in 2010 and in 2018 and the change as a percentage. [See notes to editors for sources and definitions.]

Warren Kenny, GMB Regional Secretary said:

“These figures show that there is a direct correlation between the level of housing costs and the change in the numbers of babies born across the different areas of London. The higher the housing costs in a borough the greater the decline in the numbers of babies born since 2010.

“Many lessons flow from these high housing costs and the toll on the numbers of babies born. One lesson should be on the policy of how to provide homes for lower paid workers priced out by high housing costs.

“Providing homes for rent at genuinely affordable rents is the only viable solution to provide homes for lower paid workers and their families across the whole of London. Without the availability of homes provided by the council at genuinely affordable rents, these workers and their families are simply not able to even aspire to live in the areas where they work. 

“It should shock polite society that it is lower paid residents on council estates, supported by the likes of GMB, who are facing long battles with Labour councillors and housing associations that want to demolish these estates and use the land to increase the supply of expensive homes out of the reach of the lower paid workers who currently live on them.

“It was Clarion Housing, that sought to demolish the 4 acre Sutton estate in Chelsea and replace it with luxury housing. This in an area where average house prices are £1.5m. 

“The bosses of these housing associations and the Labour councillors who are behind the rush to regard the land on the estates, which is housing the lower paid workers and their families, as a giant cash machine should be thoroughly ashamed of what they are doing to these families.

“They wouldn’t dare suggest that a street full of the homes of the middle classes should be compulsory purchased for redevelopment. Yet all over London they have no shame in doing this for the homes of the lower paid families. Over 100 estates are facing demolition. This should stop until the residents consent to the sale of their homes or agree to give up their secure tenancies.”

ENDS

Contact: Vaughan West 07967 342197 or GMB London Press Office 07970 114762

Notes to Editors

Sources and Definitions

ONS Data

• Birth statistics represent births which occurred in England and Wales in the calendar year, but include a very small number of late registrations from the previous year.

• Figures are compiled from information supplied when births are registered as part of civil registration, a legal requirement.

Quality and Methodology

ONS Birth Statistics Quality and Methodology Information contains important information on:

• the strengths and limitations of the data and how it compares with related data • uses and users of the data • how the output was created • the quality of the output: including the accuracy of the data"

Average House Price statistics

• https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/uk-house-price-index