GMB call on ONS to flash more prominent health warnings on population projections

Housing

GMB London call on ONS to flash more prominant health warnings on London borough population projections after figure for Kensington and Chelsea 2029 revised downwards by 175,000.

The Office for National Statistics needs to put in bright bold letters its clear qualifications in the small print that the projections are not forecasts and are subject to the capacity of areas to cope with the projections says GMB London region. 

Comparing the ONS population projections by Borough in London for 2029, based on the 2004 figures and the 2014 figures, show a downwards revision of 174,900 for Kensington and Chelsea according to the latest projections. On the same basis the downwards projection for Westminster is 111,200.

Other boroughs revised downwards are Hammersmith and Fulham (44,400), Camden (32,400) and Richmond upon Thames (16,900).

On the other hand the highest upwards revision is for Newham, up 138,800. Next is Tower Hamlets, up 111,000, followed by Lewisham, 99,100. 

The figures, comparing the 2004 based projections and the 2014 projections for all 33 boroughs, are set out below.  See notes to editors for sources and definitions and qualifications.

For London as a whole the figures produced on the 2014 base are 1.35 million higher than those produced using the 2004 base.

Warren Kenny, GMB London region secretary, said

“The ONS need to put in bright bold letters its clear qualifications in the small print that the projections are not forecasts and are subject to the capacity of areas to cope with the projections.

“This must be heeded by politicians and planners after the ONS projections for Kensington & Chelsea changed in just 10 years by numbers so large as to be able to fill Wembley Stadium twice over.

“The ONS itself said ‘it is also important to emphasise that these projections are not forecasts and do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviours.’

‘Projections are not able to accurately reflect exactly what future population levels are going to be. This is because they do not take account of local development, policies on growth, the capacity of an area or other economic and international factors.’

“It is high time that politicians stopped using these projections as a reason to knock down housing estates and breaking up settled communities. See notes to editors for the latest list of estates facing demolition and "regeneration."

“There can be no justification in using these projections as the basis for using the ultimate in government powers of compulsory purchase of the homes of private citizens to enable property developers to make money. 

“The media also should refer to the health warnings when publishing references to these projections."

ENDS

Contact: Gary Doolan on 07590 262 504

Notes to editors

1) Source: Office for National Statistics subnational population projections

2) Estates in London facing regeneration